Ten months remain until the US presidential election, and traders on Polymarket, a decentralised prediction platform, appear optimistic that former President Donald Trump will win back the White House.
In the Trump prediction market linked to the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” contract, the Yes side shares were trading at 55 cents as of this writing, indicating a 55% chance of Trump winning. In an effort to determine who would be the most qualified candidate to lead their respective parties, the Republican Party had its first two primaries, which Trump recently won.
Analysts predict that President Joe Biden will win another term by 38%, while Republican nominee Nikki Haley, an Indian-American, has only 1% chance of winning. Amidst speculation that the former First Lady of the United States may soon enter the presidential contest, traders give a 2% chance that Michelle Obama would outperform the opposition.
Polymarket has been a top choice for traders wishing to wager on binary events since its launch in 2020. In the Presidential Election Winner 2024 contract, traders have wagered nearly $22 million, of which $3.4 million is presently locked in the prediction market centred on Trump.
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC will be utilised as resolution sources for the market till the contract expires on November 5.
Trump and Biden are likewise favoured to win the 2024 presidential election, according to conventional sports betting books. With +156 election odds last week, Biden just defeated Trump’s 150+ chances to win the presidency of the United States once more.