The likelihood of a bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved in the United States has increased to over 90%, according to two prominent analysts at Bloomberg. Meanwhile, traders on the cryptocurrency market at Polymarket, a betting platform, have become increasingly negative, reducing the odds to 85%.
In a post on Saturday, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas made reference to the possibility that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would reject proposals following Friday’s rush of revised filings. “I probably go with 5% at this point,” Balchunas said. However, you must leave a small gap for these occurrences. In November of last year, he had predicted that the probabilities would be 90% since, according to updated forms at the time, providers were heading in the correct direction.
However, players in the cryptocurrency market are less optimistic that approval would be given before January 15, according to a Polymarket betting market. The odds have dropped from last week’s 90% to roughly $500,000. Participants have gambled a total of roughly $500,000 on the approval being delayed or even denied.
Nevertheless, a large portion of the cryptocurrency industry continues to anticipate that the SEC’s significant decisions this week would result in the first bitcoin ETFs being made available to accredited investors in the nation. Bitcoin demand is predicted to reach billions of dollars with a regulated offering, making it one of the most anticipated events in the asset’s history.
Launching the first spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States is the goal of over a dozen applicants. In response to comments from the SEC, a number of updated 19b-4 filings were submitted on Friday on behalf of BlackRock, Grayscale, Fidelity, and other issuers. These filings joined the amended S-1 filings from last month. Before the ETFs can go live, both the S-1 and the 19b-4 filings must be authorised.