Prior to the June 7 price drop, the 15-day volatility of Bitcoin fell into “the bottom 6% of occurrences.”
The 15 days preceding the steep drop on June 7 saw so little fluctuation in the price of Bitcoin that it was close to all-time lows for the cryptocurrency.
According to Rapha Zagury, chief investment officer of Swan Bitcoin, the volatility during the period of May 24–June 7 was in the “bottom 6% of occurrences.”
The most recent 15-day rolling volatility figure of 23% is shown by the horizontal blue line. Given the length of time that Bitcoin was “stuck in a range,” Zagury clarified in a post on June 7 on X that “it certainly looks close to the lower level.”
According to CoinMarketCap data, after the 15 days, when it moved in a 7% range, ranging from $66,936 to $71,656, the price of Bitcoin fell drastically by 3.33% to $69,264.
The collapse occurred after the US Employment Situation Summary Report, which showed faster job growth than anticipated and suggested that the US Federal Reserve might not lower inflation rates on June 11—a statistic that analysts have been eagerly watching lately in order to predict the price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $69,246 as of this writing.
But Zagury emphasised what happened when the price of Bitcoin fell during earlier, comparable periods of minimal volatility. In the following thirty days, the average return was 20.95%, the minimum return decreased by an additional 32.06%, and the maximum return was 218.40%.
In the 365 days that follow, the results are even more noteworthy. During this period, the average return is 820.82%, while the minimum return is 55.59%. Zagu emphasised that even though it doesn’t portend anything for the future, he still thinks there is “value in learning from the past.”